Thursday, April 03, 2008

Guesstimates on April 3. 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Short term upside target is 1390 and support now stands at 1335. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun. Downside target is 90.00.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

hi carl
i remember hearing from jerry favors that lindsay said we should not attempt to call point 15 to early , in looking back at the monthly dow 3 peaks pattern ive been following im leaning towards point 15 in the month of july 2007
point 16 17 and 18 would then be into the january lows . this places us in point 19 . the alternate is point 16 is the january lows which also fits yet
leaves longer sideways trend
my point is this , while a bullish bias is warrented at the juncture
i think a test of the high's is about all we will see , then we get point 20 or point 18 depending on the complexity of the pattern ,
i realise im deviating from lindsays time spans when i use this larger monthly pattern yet
being a student also of elliott wave theory this 5 point reversal pattern would be consistant with a 4th wave triangle , the january lows being point A . also if i was to use the july high as the top of wave 3 then this a b c decline into january would be labeled wave 4 , hence weare either in wave 1 of wave 5 ( point 19 in lindsay terms ) or we are in wave B of a 4th wave triangle ( point 17 in lindsay terms )both counts call for a test of the highs and a pull back before a break out .
lastly if i am to go with point 15 in july 2007 ( or wave 3 top )
an 18 month sideways pattern would be consistant with a typical corrective time period which would imply no break out untill after january 2009 . so while i do think
this market is going much higher into mid 2010 if not early 2011 before we see a real bear market
im not convinced that we are out of the woods in the broader sence
into the end of the year .
as a bullish note id think a slight poke above 13780.11 would be seen to finish point 19 or even point 17 for that matter , either way i think this market heads higher into early august , ill
re asses my thoughts then .