I just sold my e-mini long position at 1286. The market is showing a wide range today with acceleration to the downside after an apparent false breakout above the 1300 level. Right now I am not quite sure what to expect over the next few days, but better safe than sorry.
9 comments:
I'm the guy on the "idiot" piece... Now Carl, buy high sell low seems to be your mentra... You bought pretty much at the high of the day and sold at the LOD... you will be sorry if you keep going long... this rally will fail like last one. Don't you see it? Always up on low volume and down on LARGE volume... We are going lower then 1200 and you are just going keep on losing your shirt by catching falling knife...
have got to give you some credit that you are not going with your predictions of huge returns by years end. And stating you are clueless to what is going to happen. Check out history when you have individual candidates like we have right now and there is no good choice the stock market always gets clobbered after the election. So i assume we should decline into election and plunge after.
Try, try, try again! When will you give up and throw up your hands and join the smart money! If the market cannot hold gains with the help of a $8 oil down, it goes to show there is no conviction behind these rallies. So give up and quit confusing us who want to make some real money.
To the guy on the "idiot" piece:
If I'm not mistaken Carl had 3 winning trades prior to this one. I haven't gone back and done the arithmetic, but I believe even with this one losing trade he's still showing a nice profit.
However, I also believe that we could be see a retest of the July lows before we see 1500. We may be on the way to that retest now. Of course, the big question is whether that low will hold or whether the market will go on to new lows.
A question for Carl: I'm wondering what criteria you use to determine whether to put on a trade at 100 percent or 200 percent. I was also wondering given why you chose to go 200 percent long this morning (instead of 100 percent). Thanks!
Greg
I can't believe somebody like you who has had so many years in the market is still not able to differentiate the forest from the trees and call the rallies like we had today are nothing but short covering and bear market rallies. Listen to Art Cashin who too is in the market for a long time but knows what he is talking!
Hi Carl,
I think we move higher from here. Have just gone long at 1287.50 looking for a close above 1300. Stop at 1284. Will elaborate more on my thought process later.
The only thing I fail to understand about your trading Carl is your lack of desire to lock in profits. I do not know how many contracts you trade but you were in the green for the better part of the morning with your trade. Why not lock in profits with a stop loss that is above your entry. I trade 10 ER2 contracts and 20 ES contracts and each pt I take is $1000 dollars. I'm sure you trade more than 20 contracts so why would you let that winner turn into an $8000 loser is beyond me. Always value what you have more than you value what you desire...lesson I had to learn the hard way. Keep up the good work and I love the blog.
I think a lot of these comments are a bit hard. It was a bad day for a lot of people. There is a massive fight going on here between extreme bearishness (1100) and extreme bullishness (1500) which is exactly why we are trading the way we are - large swings and net nowhere. We reached 1277.5 twice whilst you were on holiday and here we are again, back to zero. It is just a large range. I am bearish but I read this blog because I will always give Carl the benefit of the doubt. he is totally right on gold again, eur again and I was right on gbp jpy - suggested on this blog selling at 214.It is still not obvious where we go from here but the fundamentals in the UK are diabolical.
Catherine
hi carl
i posted earlier this morning
about loosing your disapline
id like to re state that a bit differently . you do good analysis
but currently you get emotional with your bullish bias , you made the right entry this morning based
on your bullish veiw , it did not work but for me it is about the short term cycles turning down .
i dont think the spx is going to make new lows how ever i am hedged for the downside in the qqqq which just broke below 46 today yet there is support at 44 - 43.72
to be more specific . this cycle were in calls for a low into sept 16th 19th and it is a cycle similar to the march lows .
after words we enter a bullish cycle into early oct .
from mid oct into january is technically bullish with just a couple concerns.
from sept 20th into oct 8th
needs to see the market make new highs above 1313 on the spx and above 11900 on the dow .
this will give me some validity
to my own work whic is bullish into june 2009 as well as mid june 2010 to jan 2011 . so im bullish longer term .
the 10 day trin is becoming oversold the 10 adv dec line on the nyse has a cycle low due oct 14th 16th . in short we may just trade in a sideways range which implies being able to swing trade both directions .
good luck carl im with you in the bigger picture
anonomous joe
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