Range Estimate

Here is a five minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. I am sticking with my range estimate of 843-868 (blue rectangle).

I went long at 852.75 because I was bullish on the day and I know that up days usually make their low points not far from the open - generally less than 6 points lower. I also had yesterday's close at 849 as support. So after seeing the open it was no longer logical to expect a move as low as 843, at least not early in the day.

In the event the market was much weaker than I expected. So far the drop from its high today near the open has nearly matched the last reaction on the way up from yesterday's low (purple rectangles). The market dropped almost 9 points from its opening price and three points below yesterday's close. This is unusual behavior for an up day, but I am still willing to lean on my 843 estimate for today's low point. I expect to put my second unit back on near that level if the opportunity presents itself.