Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Why I got out

Here is a two minute bar chart of the recent part of today's e-mini day session. I bought two units at the green arrows because I expected the market to probe for sellers above 860. Not much progress was made above 860, more for lack of buying pressure than from aggressive selling. I was willing to be patient waiting for more buyers to show up since I thought a move into the 865-70 range was a good possibility by the close.

Instead the market sagged to and a little below the breakout level (which for me was the red dashed line). This was one warning that trouble might be on its way. The sellers finally showed up at the red arrows on increasing volume, after a failed rally to a lower top. I just stopped myself out at that point.

I still think that today's session shows more bullish than bearish characteristics, primarily because the early morning rejection of support at 845-46 is still holding up. The purple dotted line is the midpoint of today's day session. If the market can open above there tomorrow, or rally above there early in the session, I think we will be in for a bullish day and the start of a move to 900.

A move below 845-46 support would negate my bullish expectations temporarily and mean that a move down at least to 830 is underway.

1 comment:

Tahoe said...

thanks Carl. A lot of congestion at time. tough environment. really appreciate your insight.