Friday, April 24, 2009

Revised range estimate

Here is a five minute bar chart of the e-mini day session. I am long two units at an average of 856.75. I got long because I am bullish for the day and because my original estimate for the low - 842 - was hit overnight and the subsequent rally brought the market to new highs for the day before the floor open. When the market didn't react much from the open I had to get long.

I think we have seen the day session low. My new range estimate is 853-875 (blue rectangle). If this is the correct read then midpoint support based on the first 25 minutes of the day session should hold (purple dotted line).

4 comments:

Fred said...

I am not familiar wih E Minis. Could someone on the board explain to me what 853 to 875 on E Minis translates to when tracking the SPX. Otherwise, what is the symbol for E Minis? Thanks.

surfcat said...

ES mini future contract is trading at a 3.25 discount to cash at this moment in time. 859.5 to 861.75 for SPX(cash).

cme.com

DL said...

Carl, great analysis again. I've had a bearish slant but have tried to keep an open mind on what the market is telling me. Clearly, it's been saying we're going higher. We've had several false breakdowns which were met with buyers and now we're threatening to blow past the 865 line. It'll be interesting to see what happens next.

I also noticed that your critic indicator proved 100% correct. The max amount of critics occurred right at the market bottom and have gradually disappeared to the point where there are now none. Congrats!

Win said...

DL,
Is the critic indicator pointing to a top?