Friday, May 15, 2009

New range estimate

Here is a point and figure chart - one point boxes, 1 point reversal - for the e-mini day session. I created this chart using Linnsoft's Investor R/T software.

I was bearish coming into the open and shorted the market twice with no results. Experience has taught me that when that happens the long side is probably the place to be. This chart convinced me this was the case. Once the market rallied from the day session low at 886.25 as high as 891 a breakout from a narrow base was evident. The subsequent rally completed the breakout from the entire base. I count 24 columns across the 888 price line in this base (horizontal green line). This projects a target for this swing at 911 (vertical green line). I am also now projecting a day session range for today of 886-906, so I don't think this target will be reached in today's trading.

If I am reading the market's condition correctly we are in the early stage of a move to 952. The price action thus far today makes a drop below yesterday's low at 878.75 unlikely.

No comments: