Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Sometimes I just get the urge to sell

Here is a five minute chart of the e-mini day session. I just closed out my long position at 912 even though I was looking for 925 as today's high. What happened?

Over the years I have found that I sometimes hear the voice of intuition whispering that I should close out a position. More often than not it turns out to be the right thing to do. When this happens nowadays I act immediately and ask questions later. Today was one of those times.

So what was it about today's action that encouraged the voice of intuition to speak out? I think a several considerations were at work.

First of all, yesterday was a strong day - the e-minis rallied with barely any reactions. It would be unusual to see two such "straight up" days in a row. So sometime today drop of 10 points and maybe more is likely to develop.

Secondly, the day's electronic high was 915.75, and this morning's day session rally couldn't take out that high. This bothered me, especially because this morning's rally ended at what could be interpreted as a volume climax (red arrows).

The drop from the day session high lasted longer than the drop earlier in the day session, but it carried just the same distance down (purple rectangles) and held midpoint support (purple dotted line). Again, I was disappointed to see the market drop even that far after failing to take out this morning's electronic high.

Finally, today is a more active trading session than yesterday's, a good sign for a continued rally, but the market was not making the upside progress normally associated with this increase of activity.

So when the market rallied to 912 and started to trade sideways, I think my intuitive side was happy with today's small profit and suggested I book it and look for another chance at a better price.

I am still bullish, though not as bullish for today as I was earlier. I expect to be a buyer later today. The worst I anticipate on the downside is the 900 level, but I doubt the market will drop even that low. I also think we shall see at least 920 on the upside today.

1 comment:

ARJ said...

Another fine trade, congratulation! Hope the market could move up to 950, then a reasonable correction to relive short term overbought situation.

By the way, could not see the similar volume price pattern on SPY (cash) side, guess ES must lead SPX/SPY. Any insights regarding the relationship between Future & Cash would be appreciated.