Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Revised range estimate

Here is a five minute chart of e-mini day session trading. The market broke below both support levels (second purple rectangle and purple dotted line) so I conclude that the day's high is in place at 923.50. I estimate that the low will be 900 or so.

Today the market rallied to within 5 points of its previous high and the subsequent break has been uncorrected. This is not a supply shock so far, but it does show that the sellers have a lot of ammunition and are well motivated. Any weakness below 900 on increasing volume will mean that the market is headed back to 875 and quite probably to 865.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Carl, you make great calls!

But I don't understand your trading strategy. You don't seem to be buying at the bottom or selling at the top of the very range you call out.

If you know the range, why don't you use that knowledge to maximize your profits?

Please let us know why you are only trying to buy high and sell higher. Maybe, there is a higher probability of the trend carrying the price further? But is n't there also a higher risk of reversal?