Tuesday, May 19, 2009

What changed?

Earlier today I sold my long position at 912 - heeding the voice of intuition. It was worried that the market was about to break 10 or more points before heading higher.

In this sort of situation I watch the market's progress closely, comparing it to what would be normal if my intuitive leap was to turn out to be a good one. Were sellers coming into the market?

For 30 minutes or so the market traded sideways. Then a volume increase on a down bar suggested that sellers were getting more aggressive (red arrows). But volume did not build as the market dropped (green sloping line). Instead, the e-minis dropped to the low of what now was looking like a potential trading range (green dashed rectangle). The fact that the pace of this decline was slower than the pace of the first drop in this potential trading range (red sloping lines) was another hint that no downside breakout was imminent.

So, since I am basically bullish, it made sense to take a chance and repurchase half of my long position near the low of this potential trading range. Right afterward the market rallied off of its low, putting in an increasing range, up bar. At this point I repurchased the rest of my position.

If I am reading this market correctly it should not drop below the low of the green dashed rectangle. I now think that the 925 level can be reached today.

1 comment:

rc said...

It is sure taking it's time. I am thinking if we don't start moving higher in the next 30 minutes a reversal could be coming.