Monday, March 29, 2010

Guesstimates on March 29, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1163 - 1175. I think a strong move upward has started. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00. Resistance is in the 81-83 range.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.


spycharter said...

Due to the large gap up today and Quarterly expirations looming on Wednesday. I think SPY may drop back to 116.65 to fill the gap before continuing higher.

Larry said...

I am still wrestling with the concept of lower crude, lower gold prices, and a higher S&P. There is nothing in the charts and recent market action that suggest commodities and the index can go in opposite directions. In fact, hte higher dollar has clearly demonstrated a lower index as well as lower commodities. I am not the brightest lightbulb but there seems to be a tremendous disconnect with this consistent recommendation.

Anonymous said...

Larry, I agree, that if the US economy continues into a tail-spin depression, and that is a very likely scenario because of the aging boomers, then everything will be lower. But this will take a few years to unfold. We have seen the first phase with the collapse of the housing market. Next, we will see all the state governments and all government entitlement programs go bust.