Monday, March 08, 2010

Guesstimates on March 8, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1131-1145. I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

April Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00. Resistance is in the 81-83 range.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. The market has moved substantially above 1120 resistance but I expect it to stall in the 1150-60 range and then head lower. Strength above 1160 would mean that it is headed instead for 1300.

SLV - May Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.


Atul said...

Hi Carl,

What's your stake today? Long or short on S&P?


Unknown said...

You expect to reach 1200 over the next 3 mo. and today 1145 ... are we going to spend the next 3 mo. to make 55 points without any retracement? What target do you expect short time 2-3 weeks?

Dave Narby said...

I now agree with you on the S&P.

Fundamentals no longer matter. Rally on!

However, the mechanism that is lifting equities will also lift all other risk assets, so I disagree with you on metals, to a lesser extent on oil and other consumable commodities.

Eventually there will be a currency crisis, perhaps Japan imploding as it can no longer service it's debt, perhaps another country. But that is what it will likely take to precipitate a sell-off.

The powers that be have decided it's make or break time. Therefore it will 'make' until it 'breaks'.