A lot of folks are bearish on crude as it continues to grind higher. I never thought ti would reach 85 much less break it. However, the charts don't lie. Looking at daily or weekly charts, higher prices seem inevitable. If we push thru 85.47, then 87.50, even 90, is certainly doable. The dollar is certainly cooperating and higher oil is not hurting the markets either. Just my two cents
carl, crude doesnt compete with gas in the power generation market, coal does. even if it did it would be an insignificant part of the demand profile for crude. If your $30 projection is based on the traditional correlation between crude and nat gas you will be wrong. That correlation has broken down because of the overwhelming negative fundamentals of nat gas, primarily due to coal seam gas, LNG and the fact that its a North American market compared to crude which is influenced by world wide demand. Having said all that I actually agree with your bearish view on crude (short term), but for different reasons. $30 might be a little aggressive but possible. If we do see that number its a screaming buy as energy is in a long term bull market.
4 comments:
A lot of folks are bearish on crude as it continues to grind higher. I never thought ti would reach 85 much less break it. However, the charts don't lie. Looking at daily or weekly charts, higher prices seem inevitable. If we push thru 85.47, then 87.50, even 90, is certainly doable. The dollar is certainly cooperating and higher oil is not hurting the markets either. Just my two cents
carl, crude doesnt compete with gas in the power generation market, coal does. even if it did it would be an insignificant part of the demand profile for crude. If your $30 projection is based on the traditional correlation between crude and nat gas you will be wrong. That correlation has broken down because of the overwhelming negative fundamentals of nat gas, primarily due to coal seam gas, LNG and the fact that its a North American market compared to crude which is influenced by world wide demand.
Having said all that I actually agree with your bearish view on crude (short term), but for different reasons. $30 might be a little aggressive but possible. If we do see that number its a screaming buy as energy is in a long term bull market.
humm... CL looks like the NYA.X
your book, is my first item on Kindle. Thanks. from Italy!
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