Thursday, March 10, 2011

Down to 1270 - then up

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session trading in the June'11 e-mini futures.

I think the market is on its way down to 1270 or so (green oval). That is the current postion of the lower line of the bearish trend channel (red dash lines) you see on the chart. It is also the target price implied by a repetition of the length of the initial drop from the February 18 top (blue rectangles).

I think the the drop to 1270 will be completed next week. Once the low is in place I expect to see the start of an extended rally which will carry the e-minis to 1400 or so.


sneads11 said...

Excellent analysis Carl!!

Nav said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bill said...

It'll hit 1270, not sure it'll bounce back to new highs from there. I see it going down to the 120 - 1230 range over the next couple of weeks. I can't see new highs until May or June at the earliest.

Bill said...

And the reason for my thinking is that european shares already closed at the lowest level for 2011. See here

North American shares will follow suit, we will inevitably go back to December levels as Europe already has.