Friday, March 04, 2011

Guesstimates on March 4, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1325-1340. I now expect a close above 1322.25 today. The recent 1292-1343 trading range should be resolved by an upside breakout. QQQ: I expect to see new bull market highs soon.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

April Crude: The 102 price target was hit last week. The market is still resilient. A move as high as 104 would mean that continuation up to 112 is likely.

GLD – April Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target. Support is at 1315.

SLV - March Silver: Next upside target is 36.00. Support is at 25.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.


Unknown said...


take a look at your domed house estimation again. today's move down appears to be point 20 (or the start of it). i'm hoping for a better pullback before the run up.


Adsense said...

i was going to ask same question as above . anything thoughts to where point 15 is ? or was ??
i realise you never want to call point 15 to soon . also there is a loosley labled head and shoulders top on the dow daily chart .

Adsense said...

i found what i was asking about .
i would add to your thoughts on this labeling you have . shouldnt there be some uniform time involved in the sideways movement ?
a move towards dow 11876 into march 14 th for example ( if it comes ) could be 16 17 18 or simply 16 .i bring this up because typically triangle formations are overlapping 3 wave moves so if we do see a further decline to 11876 in the dow labeling it all point 16 might be prudent .
to soon to call it yet if we do see the dow decline to 11876 plus minus it would bring the longer term stochastics back towards an oversold reading and would justify
my thoughts
the range would be roughly 11876-12303
good luck

Spudthorpe said...

Carl, since we closed below 1322.25 on the ES, do you once again expect the larger decline? What makes that exact level so important? Thanks.

monkeypicks said...

Carl I have to commend you on todays post it is the first time since I have read your blog that I think you have been the most honest in your post stating that you have no clue whether it goes up or down first. I am in the same situation as it is forming a pennant pattern which is a bullish continuation pattern but could drop first to complete the pattern and then rise. I have no clue either which way it goes first but it will be bullish in the end.