Monday, March 28, 2011

Guesstimates on March 28, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1309-1320. The low at 1249 in the cash (1241.25 in June ES) ended the drop from the February top. The market is now headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: I expect to see new bull market highs soon.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think 83.50 is the upside potential. After that the drop to 70.00 should resume.

May Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – April Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Silver has reached the 36.00 upside target but there is still no sign of a top. Next stop is 39.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.


isotopes said...

I'm not a day trader so I don't have a subscription, but do enjoy reading your blogs on a regular basis. I was wondering if there is a scenario that could play out where your three peaks and a domed house theory does not play out? In other words, what would have to happen for you to believe the market would not crash?

Moby Pixel said...


I think Carl's paid subscription site is designed to help out us swing traders too.
Carl also has a book out "The Art Of Contrarian Trading" that is a great tool for day traders and swing traders alike. It will help you keep a level head when the media telling you to SELL, SELL, SELL.


Bill said...

Carl, can we really reach new highs in the last 3 months prior to QE2 ending? Maybe the February high will hold for another 5 months, and we trade mostly flat. One thing is for the market to shrug off Japan and the Middle East, quite another is to shrug off the end of QE2 and higher interest rates that will ensue.

Ted said...

Hi Carl,

I have been asking myself the same thing as bill and isotopes. I would be interested to hear your response to their questions.

Thank you.

Carl Futia said...

Dear all:

My only observation is that people keep asking me under what circumstances would I will turn bearish. I take this as a bullish sign for the market.

In any case, I never commit myself to any market view base on contingencies that have yet to develop. So I will be bullish until further notice.

dcatlowpj said...

Good answer as any, folks. Carl, today's late action shook out some weak longs, I would think and cause jitters. Your day range did not pan out. Both numbers were off by about7 points and I would think that a new Range may play out here. I use range boxes overnight each night and work them and we have this new little irritating cluster at the 1304-1302 area. This is going to be fun, likely very volatile at times and will cause talking heads to keep re-phrasing their new "direction." As you inferred, it ain't over until it's over.

When we see the very last low on a weekly get hit, that nice little 1241 area revisited, then we have reason to make some new conclusions but a "hold" below that price area is a must.