Thursday, October 25, 2012

domed house update

The top chart is a daily chart of the Dow industrials going back to the beginning of 2012. The bottom chart is a schematic for George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house pattern. The bar chart is labeled with blue numbers to correspond to the schematic.

I think that the top on October 18 completed the top of the domed house and was point 25 in the schematic. The upcoming point 26 low is likely to occur at the level where the drop from the October 5 top, point 23, matches the size of the April-June 2012 drop in the Dow. From that low a strong rally to point 27 should start. I expect point 27 to develop at roughly the level of the April 2012 top in the Dow. After the point 27 top is in place the Dow should resume its drop to standard target for this formation - the vicinity of the point 10 low.


mfm9800 said...

Thanks Carl. Important call.

What I have trouble reconciling is that 7 months back from pt. 23 (to where pt. 14 should be a low) would put the chart back at @ March. At that pt. in time the chart bears no resemblance to Lindsey's chart.

Rob said...

I think Carl explains the timing very well in his last couple 3PDH updates. I think you nailed it, Carl. I used to subscribe to Jerry Favors, may he rest in peace, and he used to always say "all hell breaks loose after point 27" and point 28 is the MINIMUM target.

I am concerned because of the positive/negative numbers I told you about, Carl, getting up to four times what they were at the 2007 highs. Does that mean this fall will be four times as bad? I sure hope not.

I'm curious if you have any assessment of the incredible head and shoulders pattern that we have traced out from 2000 to the present, with us being at what could be point 25 in the mother of all head and shoulders patterns. A good chart can be found at:


ninja turtle said...

I think point 10 as labelled in chart should be point 14. Point 10 should be the Aug low.

Carl, any idea what is the time to get to point 28 from point 23.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
i respect your work yet still consider the recent drop as all of pt 24 even though i have to admit your labeling is textbook as for rob
i have to as this question
could it also be a point 19 high ?
its to soon to tell from what i can see yet the head and shoulders top is textbook yet the right shoulder does look a little to high .
the slant should remain down .
as for Carl ill note this
both points 25 and 27 from what Ive looked at tend to be relatively short lived and if you count from the July 2010 low this move can be considered a long advance into Oct 9th of 831 calendar days so do we start counting the decline ?
i would think so . another thought
4-21-09 low to 4-26 10 high 255 trade days then 49 trade day decline ,July 2 2010 to July 7 2011 255 trade days then 62 trade days down .Oct 4 2011 plus 255 trade days was Monday Oct 8 2012 the Dow actually closed at its high Oct 5th ( Friday ) Oct 8 we headed lower ( the Monday )
if history holds true then 49 to 62 trade days from Oct 8 should be a low . from there i don't know .
lastly i do agree with you placement of point 26 and accept you have that only as a guide .
good luck