Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Guesstimates on October 23, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1401-1420. Heavy selling in Europe makes me think that the 1420-25 support zone has failed. This in turn means that the market is probably headed for 1300 or so.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
December Crude: A close in New York today below 86 would convince me that the trend has turned back down and mean that the market is headed for 70 or below.
GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.
Google: Google broke support at 700 yesterday on the earnings news. There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.


Unknown said...

A move to 1300 while silver moves to 50 would require a huge correlation breakdown. Possible but doesn't seem probable, especially in light of other asset relationships which would also require sudden paradigm shifts.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Today's decline in the Dow satisfies
point 24 and while i would like to see the dow close down near present levels im not sure this will be the case i mention the other day today could become a reversal day in which the dow would rally into the end of the week so on a closing bases point 24 may or may not yet be complete
yet on a print bases i have to consider it . im lower resistance on the dow to 13371-13406.25
that range being tested on Friday
would be text book with what im looking at in this present bearish cycle . the dow closing in the 13000 range would then come surrounding the elections
im staying with the bearish trend mind you just allowing for a larger bounce
good luck