Monday, October 15, 2012

Guesstimates on October 15, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1422-1434. The market so far is holding support in the 1420-25 range and this means that the next move will be upward to and above 1468. But the ES is in a danger zone. Should support in the 1420-25 range fail a substantial decline will  begin.
QQQ:  The QQQ is in a danger zone and I will key off the action of the S&P to determine if the up trend has been reversed.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.
GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.
Google: Google has reached.  Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  
Apple:  Apple broke below 645 support but I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.


Afshaikh said...

SP Has already traded below 1420, and Crude has already broken support last week below 90.

What are the updated levels ?

Unknown said...

The JCB doesn't want to support the Yen, they want the Yen to weaken in order to buoy exports.

Carl Futia said...

I think you have it backwards. The JCB want the dollar price of one yen to fall so that Japanese exports get cheaper to foreign buyers. The dollar-yen quote tells you how many yen it takes to buy one dollar - this is the reciprocal of the number of dollars it takes to buy one yen. So the JCB does not want the dollar-yen to fall, it wants the dollar-yen to rise so that Japanese exports get cheaper in terms of dollars.