Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Guesstimates on December 26, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1417-1427. Last Thursday's 1391 overnight low formed just below the 1393 midpoint of the November -December rally.  Since that low the ES has spent most of its time trading above the 1418.50 midpoint of last week's break. These are two bullish signs and I think they mean that the market is still headed for 1468 and above.
QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached the lower edge of our initial 85-86 upside target zone. I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
February Gold:  The market has broken 1655 support The implication is that it is headed back down to its trading range low at 1520.
March Silver: Silver has broken 30.50 support. The implication is that it is headed back to 26.00.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

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