trend turning down

Blogger is having problems so I can't show you any charts.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are trading beneath their 50 day moving averages today as I write this. Coupled with the high volume on the downside both yesterday and today this is solid evidence for a reversal of the short term market trend from up to down.

I think the S&P will drop 130 points from its December 31 top and possibly much more than that. A drop as big as 130 points would match the size of the May-June 2013 drop.

I now think the Dow has put in the top of the domed house, the second half of Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation. If I am right about this the prognosis calls for a drop below the October 9 low in the Dow. The same low in the S&P was roughly at 1645.

Is this the start of a bear market? I think it is too early to tell. The 200 day moving average in the Dow is at 15,440 while the 200 day moving average in the S&P is at 1701. So a drop all the way to the October 2013 lows in these averages would bring them well below their 200 day moving averages which would be the first clue that a bear market has begun.