Friday, February 16, 2018

Guesstimates on February 16, 2018

March S&P E-mini Futures:  The 2746 level reached this morning in Europe has probably ended the move up from last Friday’s low at 2530. A drop of 100 points or so is now underway. The drop from 2878 at the January 26 top has been the biggest point drop since the 2009 low but exceeds the 2015-16 drop by only 17 points. I am betting that the subsequent 2529 low will hold and that the ES will trade near 3100 later this year.
QQQ:  Support at 156 and upside target is 170 over the coming weeks.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is approaching its next upside target at 2.95%. Paradoxically this is good news for the stock market because it means that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro nearly reached the 126 target.  Support now is at 122.50. Next upside target will be 130.
Dollar-Yen: Support at 108 has finally failed. Downside target now are 99 and then 90.
West Texas Crude Oil: I expect crude to hold support at 59. The next upside target will then be 74.
Gold:  The 1295 is support. Upside target is 1390.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support in the 990-1010 zone has produced a strong rally. GOOG is headed for 1250.
Apple:  AAPL is headed higher to 180 and above.
Facebook:  FB is likely to move higher into the 195-200 zone.
Twitter: TWTR reached the 34-36 target zone on earnings news.
Support is now at 26. After some sideways action I expect TWTR to move up to 48.
Alibaba: Support is still 162 but that is the worst I see on the downside. BABA should rally to 215 over the coming weeks.  
Visa: Headed for 135.

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