Monday, February 05, 2018

Guesstimates on February 5, 2018

March S&P E-mini Futures:  The 2800-08 support zone failed spectacularly Friday. This means that the ES is headed down to the next important support zone of 2664-2677. I still think the ES will trade up near 3100 this year. As evidence I offer the Super Bowl indicator. The Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl last night. Since they are a pre-merger NFL team the indicator predicts that 2018 will be a bullish year overall. This indicator has had an 80% success rate in 52 tries.
QQQ:  The average is headed for support at 156.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is approaching its next upside target at 2.95%. Paradoxically this is good news for the stock market because it means that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has nearly reached the 126 target.  Support now is at 122.50.
Dollar-Yen: A bull market is underway. Support is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: The upside target at 63 has become support. Next upside target is 70.
Gold:  The 1295 resistance level is now support. Upside target is 1390.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support now is at 1080 and the drop from the 1195 upside target should end there.
Apple:   Support is now 165. APPL is probably headed for 195 after the current reaction ends.
Facebook:  Support is now at 180 and the next target is 210.
Twitter: Support is now 21-22. As long as it holds TWTR is headed for 34-36. Alibaba: Support is still 180. BABA stopped 3 points shy of the 210 upside target at 210. Assuming support holds the next step up is likely to carry to 224.
Visa: Next target at 127 was reached and, assuming support at 120 holds, Visa will be headed for 135. Should 120 support fail Visa will be headed for 110.

No comments: