Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Guesstimates on February 6, 2018

March S&P E-mini Futures:  The ES dropped as low as 2529 last night in Asian trading as volatility shorts were massacred. At the low the market kissed its rising 200 day moving average. This drop is the biggest point drop since the 2009 low but exceeds the 2015-16 drop by only 17 points. I am betting that last night’s low ended the drop from 2878. If I am right then the ES will trade near 3100 later this year.
QQQ:  The average has reached support at 156 and is now likely to head higher. TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is approaching its next upside target at 2.95%. Paradoxically this is good news for the stock market because it means that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has nearly reached the 126 target.  Support now is at 122.50.
Dollar-Yen: A bull market is underway. Support is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: The upside target at 63 has become support. Next upside target is 70.
Gold:  The 1295 resistance level is now support. Upside target is 1390.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support at 1080 failed but the 990-1010 zone is strong support and the bull market should resume from there.  
Apple:   Support at 165 has failed and AAPL is on its way to 145.
Facebook:  Support is now at 180 and the next target is 210.
Twitter: Support is now 21-22. As long as it holds TWTR is headed for 34-36. Alibaba: Support is still 180. BABA stopped 3 points shy of the 210 upside target at 210. Assuming support holds the next step up is likely to carry to 224.
Visa: Visa is headed for 110.

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