Friday, February 09, 2018

Guesstimates on February 9

March S&P E-mini Futures:  The ES kissed its rising 200 day moving average at its 2529 low earlier this week. The drop from 2878 was the biggest point drop since the 2009 low but exceeds the 2015-16 drop by only 17 points. I am betting that the 2529 low will hold and that the ES will trade near 3100 later this year.
QQQ:  The average has reached support at 156 and is now likely to head higher.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is approaching its next upside target at 2.95%. Paradoxically this is good news for the stock market because it means that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has nearly reached the 126 target.  Support now is at 122.50.
Dollar-Yen: A bull market is underway. Support is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 63 has failed but I expect crude to hold support at 59. The next upside target will then be 70.
Gold:  The 1295 resistance level is now support. Upside target is 1390.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support at 1080 failed but the 990-1010 zone is strong support and the bull market should resume from there.  
Apple:   Support at 165 has failed and AAPL is on its way to 145.
Facebook:  Support at 180 has failed and FB will probably drop to 166.
Twitter: TWTR reached the 34-36 target zone on earnings news yesterday.
Support is now at 26. After some sideways action I expect TWTR to move up to 48.
Alibaba: Support at 180 has apparently failed and BABA will probably drop to 162.
Visa: Visa is headed for 110.

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