Is the Bull Market in Gold Over?

Is the bull market in gold over? At the moment my best guess is that the top near 458 last November did not mark the end of the gold bull market that started from the 252 level in August of 1999. Why? I have to admit that the explanation I am about to give illustrates that forecasting is more art than science.

The first chart above this post is a monthly bar chart of the London gold fixing over the past 30 years. There were two gold bull markets in the 1980's. One carried from 297 to 509 (71.4 %) while the other carried from 284 to 500 (76.1%). On this basis one would reasonably expect the current bull market in gold from the 252 level to stop between 432 and 444.

The second chart above this post, a weekly chart, shows that the first time the market made it into the 432-444 range in the spring of 2004 it broke $60. But that break was actually a smaller percentage break that the previous big break during the bull market. Moreover, gold then recovered to move to new bull market highs.

From this I conclude that this bull market is going to be visibly bigger that the two bull market precedents in the 1980's. The fact that the upmove from the 1999 low had lasted more than 5 years by the time the late 2004 top at 454 was established also points to the same conclusion. For this bull market has already lasted quite a bit longer than the previous four bull markets on the monthly chart, thus showing that a very long term cycle has turned upward.

My experience tells me that because gold didn't stop in the 432-444 range and has already broken above the 1996 top at 414 it will next break above the two tops of the mid-1980's bull markets at 500 and 509.

To make a more precise estimate of the likely bull market target take a look at the weekly and daily gold charts above. I have drawn in the bull market boxes for the move up from 252. These boxes are $75 high. Gold is currently reacting downward to the bottom of its third box at 402.50. From there I estimate that it will rally at least to the 1/2 point of its fourth box at 515 and possibly as high as the 3/4 point of that same box at 534.