Short Term S&P Outlook

The hourly bar chart above depicts my short term box analysis for the June S&P 500 futures. The market established a low at 1137 on April 20 (the overnight low of 1136 - not shown on this chart - actually occurred on April 18). I think an uptrend began there and will eventually carry the S&P to the 1350 level by the end of this year.

In any case the market seems to have established a 30 point short term box with the top of the first box at 1167 and the top of the second box at 1197. In my May 12 post on the short term S&P outlook (time and price marked by an arrow on the chart) I said that the reaction would continue to the halfway point of the first box at 1152 but would end there. In the event the market dropped briefly below 1152, closed the day above that level and has rallied since.

At this juncture it looks to me like the market is headed for the top of the second box at 1197. I think it likely that we will see reactions of only 6 to 8 points (1/4 the size of the short term box) on the way to 1197. From 1197 a bigger reaction, probably down to the halfway point of the second box around 1182, would be the normal expectation.