The December S&P futures have dropped a bit from the pit high of 1250.30 on September 9. In this morning's guesstimate I said that the market would hold 1240. It has dropped a bit more than this but the biggest reaction since the Katrina low on August 29 has been a little less than 14 points. So a drop this big would end around 1237, the horizontal blue line on the hourly chart above.
I conclude that the current reaction is within normal bounds and that the market is about to turn higher and head for the top of the box at 1268.
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