Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463 and still working the 1438 stop. Next upside target is 1515. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.
TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.
March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.
Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.
XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.
GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.
SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.
Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.
2 comments:
Hi Carl,
I'm wondering about your 25 point stop. I have support at 1462 and 1438. (Maybe you're calculating different support levels?)
If those support levels are correct, then if 1462 is broken, it's likely the market would go to 1438 and hopefully find support there. But that's where your stop is. Looks to me like if 1462 is broken, then the market would fall to 1438 and find support there. You'd get stopped out, but the market could find support there and not go any lower.
Why not go with a stop of 10 points, then if you're stopped out you could get back in at 1438, saving you 15 points?
At this point it's probably moot because it looks like 1462 has held and the market has started a move up from there.
Greg
expecting runaway inflationary forces to further push the major index towards 2009 high. Your read has been on the marks. Market skepticisms the main cause for the hyperbolic rise to come. The FEB and govt are not sitting around to allow the bears to derail their plan as yet, the time is not ripe yet till 2009/2010.
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