Here is a copy of the cash S&P chart you can find by clicking on the MY CHART LIST link you see on the right hand side of this blog.I again think that the market is starting to build a base which can support a rally to 1500. The first step should be a rally to 1305 which will probably be followed by slightly lower low near 1265.
13 comments:
Carl...appreciate your work. Can you please tell me some fundamental reasons why you think the markets will rally to 1500? I see 1400 as top before another breakdown.
I'll bet you a case of wine that the S&P will not see 1500 this year.
1400? probably 1300 you mean... I don't see any reason we go 1500... geeze carl give it up before you loose more money... this is a deep bear market... like I said, not going to be over until SPX hit around 1080... $DJI is leading... it broke Jan/March low already, spx will follow... If Jan/March low so important, why did $DJI slice it through like it was nothing?!
LMAO @ 1500. GO BACK TO SCHOOL AND STAY THERE!!!!!!!!!!
"LMAO @ 1500. GO BACK TO SCHOOL AND STAY THERE!!!!!!!!!!"
Well, You were probably LMAO when Carl made his SP 1440 prediction in Feb/March when we were at 1260. I know some people just like you were derisive. But SP hit exactly 1440 and went down, as predicted.
Stimit, fundamentally, I think we're in an earnings slowdown and that makes it hard for me to see 1500. But Tech is strong because it is global, Oracle and RIMM forecasts aren't "terrible," as some media have reported, and AAPL and GOOG may be strong.
Fundamentally, what is driving this market off the cliff is three factors: U.S. Housing, U.S. Credit, and High Oil. There are signs that demand destruction (and possibly higher supply) will change the last. (Think about this: when you shift from an SUV that gives 16 MPG to a car that gives 24 MPG, you are reducing demand by 50%. I know that consumer demand is only one part of the puzzle, but it's a big part.)
Finally, look at how much Shanghai, Hang Seng and the BSE have fallen (from top to bottom) over the past six months. That is half the world in population, and will be half in GDP the future. Then look at IMF and World Bank estimates for India and China's GDP growth.
Carl could be wrong this time, or he may not. You don't have to take his opinion. But you're not paying for the opinion, so keep your rude comments to yourself.
Carl,
WTIC closed over $140 so is it now going to $160? I am going to go over your cycles (2 year, 4 year, etc.) again this weekend and see if I can come up with a different deduction from the one you have had. Maybe you can re-examine your 2008 prognosis as well? I will try to post my opinion here by the end of the weekend.
Thanks so much for all you do. I'm really looking forward to reading your blog thoroughly, doing my own work and coming back and comparing notes.
Carl,
I think you are basically correct, except that the bottom will be lower. The magnet for this is a perhaps once in a decade clustering of Fibo. relationships, in many time-frames, a few weeks away in July. After the rally you call for, the market will wash-out decline to a specific day.
Fundamental reasons?
Obama starts to look weak, which would mean no tax increases...market may be pricing in his economic stupidity...oil finally tops, and inflationary pressures start to ease...there could be any number of things that lead to better fundamentals.
Thanks Carl, for your work. I'm one of your appreciative fans.
Carl,
writing you late. hopefully you will have a chance to reply that. I follow EW. and from what i am looking at, one of the patterns show that S&P may rally to 1360-1370 area and then retest 1260 area one more time before going to 1500? any thoughts on it? thanks
Peter
Carl, Do you run this blog too?
www.marketkarma.blogspot.com
Thanks for the link.
No, I have nothing to do with marketkarma but the resemblance is a little spooky.
Hi Carl,
Two gap-up days in a row for gold and a retest. Couldn't this be exhaustion?
Hi Carl,
I have 9th @ 1322/25 spx before we start down. Really like that chart of yours.
1306 could be since we are in bear and swing left but felt it a little low. Lets how low we go after that.
Jerryo1314 TST group
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