Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday’s close below 1239 support was not encouraging, but this morning the market has moved back above 1239. I just bought September e-minis at 1240.50 and I plan to stay with this position unless the e-minis close today below 1237. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months.
QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.
TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance above the market is at 116-00.
September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00.
Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway. Support is at 105.00.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 133 level is now resistance.
GLD - August Gold: Gold is headed for 750. Resistance above the market is at 960.
SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 Friday so I think the market is now headed for 1250.
Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750.
14 comments:
gutsy trade Carl,
the Bears are feeling too comfortable.... I hope we can change that
Susn
i understand mr futia's concern.. one concept i find useful is what i call the ''stretch''which is the basis of my 3 harmonics trade. when a horizontal line given by gann or box theory is close to the key price level given by the frequency of medianlines and sqrt levels, over and over price will strech past a seemingly important level given by one until it has kissed all levels given by all 3... thus123.54 spy was the last level needed by this technique to trigger trader... built into the geometry of USO is another fast 8 dollar drop and i think that will be seen as the ''reason'' for this rally
Carl,
Are you blocking all of the bearish posts to your blog? They seem to have dried up lately.
Sam
I never block a post simply because it offers an opinion opposite to mine. So, no, I have not blocked any bearish posts. Those usually start coming in large numbers when the market is making a new low for its current trend. That is what gives bears confidence.
Got it. Then I guess the market must have bottomed with Edwardo's betting you a bottle of wine. :)
Keep up the great work. It is appreciated.
Best regards,
Sam
Hi Carl, 1250 area will be major resistance. If we can break through that (i.e. 1257) then I would buy. But we are still in a downtrend. The reason for the upside is due to Oil. Crude has hit the 12000, and that will act as major resistance. Crude tends be high during August due to summer hols, huricanes, etc. Also August for the S&P and Dow is usually a down month, look what happened last August.
Good day Carl,
After series of blunder picking bottom (which we all do), you finally nail it, 1290 with 40-50 reaction...then buying ES @1240. Cool
Carl,
Something makes me wonder if you actually don't post the bearish comments...Case in point...Yesterday with you posting of the Magazine Cover, I entered a comment that went something like..."So the question should be where is the handle that you pull to flush," i.e. a bearish comment made in jest that I hope never comes to pass...I look at the page today and I see many comments but mine was not included...I know it posted because I received the confirmation that it was awaiting owner approval...So did you take my tongue in cheek comment as a bearish comment and decided to NOT POST...if you did, then I am disappointed and will now see your blog in a whole new light...
Jose:
i found your comment a tad too scatological, especially since I have a particular fondness for the ideals the Statue of Liberty represents. So I decided to reject you comment as being in poor taste. This is, after all, my blog.
Carl,
now you changed the goal for gold
and silver as well.
I think as soon you had 1500 for the S&P in target you could have
changed the other forecast as well.
Anyway, I think your outlook on Gold and especially silver is too bearish as we still have a high inflation enviroment.
If the SP ends up at 1500 and your silver prediction becomes true then I would switch 100 % to silver. But silver will just go down to around 15 $ or so.
Anyway thanks for your blog.
I have been following this blog for a couple of weeks already and it is sad to read quite often people just shooting at Carl's if his guesstimates turned to be wrong when a lot more could be exchanged and learned through this blog to the benefit of all the users if just a little more easy-going attitude were in place. After all, is anyone trading better by shooting at someone's comments ? If we're all here posting in this blog we better keep our energy to "fight" the much bigger beast which is the market than loosing it on personal attacks, in my opinion. Good trading all !MC
hi carl. I just have a question: do you actually keep long trades on FX? For example, are you short on eur/usd 'till 1,35? I'm not mocking or something, i'm just curios.
10x for the george lindsay booklet , ist's great!
My apologies if anyone was offended, by my comment...scatological or metaphoric...The point is that we keep looking for "capitulation", which is such a hot word now, and "bottom calling," and many more adjectives. These magazine covers imply that we are all hoping to get what were looking(contrary indication) for, is it possible, we've all given up a long time ago, trusting that "equities always outperform other investments(big time analyst mantra)", and we've become so desensitized that we are complacent with our diminishing
401k's...and when its too late and the splash of coldwater wakes us up, we are broke, nothing worth anything left to sell...and no money left to buy...would that be capitulation or just plain broke.
Up next in magazine covers(of the future), "The Bronx is burning, AGAIN!", "Harlem is Dangerous, AGAIN!", "SOHO is homebuyer NO NO!!!..."Investors capitulated a long time ago, buying the dips, and going broke...No money left to buy, nothing worth much to sell." "BUSH on the face of the new Hyperinflated trillion dollar bill."
The bearish/boorish posters you find on sites like this tend to do the least research and are the ones most affected by the kinds of covers Carl posts. Every time the markets violates support they come out beating their chests and calling everybody out. Never mind the fact that they are still holding the bag from the Bear Stearns lows and have no hope of ever seeing the surface. They are also the ones that get the most worked up when the market inexplicably (to them) takes off higher while they still have their pants around their ankles insistent that we are all doomed because they lost their job last month. Carl posts plenty on supporting information and even some of his trades in the hopes that some out there will understand how to trade, yet still so many claim to have lost their shirts trading with his advice. If you have lost your shirt (or any other article of clothing) following the advice of others, drop everything and buy a book on trading because there isn't any advice that is going to save you from destruction.
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