You can see that recession probability was estimated to be highest in January and March, and that it dropped precipitously during April, May, and June. The probability is still hovering near 30% despite the dramatic drop in the market averages during the past 7 weeks.
My guess is that the Intrade traders think that the financial crisis which occupied the headlines in March is past, and with it the danger of any recession in 2008. Now maybe the stock market is trying to tell us something the Intrade speculators don't know, but I doubt it. In any case I think this divergence between the recession probability and the stock market drop over the past 7 weeks is a bullish omen.