Guesstimates on December 17, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Early this morning the e-minis gave up almost all their gain after yesterday’s Fed news. I sold my long position about an hour ago at 898.75 as reported in the post below. I still think the market is on its way to 1000 but this reaction indicates that yesterday’s high may be a lower top preceding a drop into the 850-60 range first.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has broken well past 135 resistance and will now probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro moved above 139 yesterday and should reach the 144-45 zone before turning lower.  I still think that this is a bear market in the euro and that the market will drop well below 120during the coming months.   

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: A rally into the 55-60 zone is underway. I think the 40.00 support level will hold for at least several months if not longer.   

GLD - February Gold: I still think this is a bear market rally in gold but yesterday’s rally above 850 indicates further strength to 885 before the market resumes its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.