Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Friday, December 19, 2008
Up
The e-minis have climbed above the 900 level and have retraced all of yesterday afternoon's sharp break. This means that the short term trend is again upward. If I am reading this correctly then we have seen the low for the day at 886.50.
18 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Mr Futia, I respect your experience and work. Would it be OK to assume that day trading this market has been tough? I have followed your blog and have seen that you have a hard time making any money trading this market the past year or so. Thank you and all the best.
slip5, Yes I see the returns. That's great on a percentage basis, but you can't make a living day trading with 70% return on 15K account, can you? Jake (Previous anonymous)
Jake you boob, that doesn't mean he trades one unit, it means he trades one unit for every $15,000 in capital he has. He shows a little modesty by not broadcasting how many units he trades. Also, that provides a guideline to followers in different capital positions. Before you post, think carefully.
I agree with you Jake but proportionally it is great and it is percentages that matter. However if you (a) only have $15000 of capital or (b) have no other way of supporting yourself, I do not think anyone should be day trading for a living. I personally think you need about $500,000 - $1 mio of capital to be able to trade professionally for a living. This is even more accute now that interest rates are so low but at previously 5% (in the UK, NZ,Aus for example), you could live a subsistence life even if your year was flat or down from the interest. A couple of good years and you would be doing fine. Catherine
It also depends on your committments - I have school fees to pay and a family to support. If you are young and single and can live in a hut on the beach in India, you can obviously live on a couple of thousand a year. last year I traded from the beach in Thailand and from the mountains of Laos for 4 months. Internet is about 2 cents a minute in Asia so cheap to access. C
Thanks for your feedback; very helpful. I have actually considered the hut in Goa or Kerala idea, but have to pay U.S. rent/mortgage as well, so nix that.
I was considering attempting FT trading with $100K or so, ... so it's nice to get some perspective.
i would just say there should be a money going into equities as treasuries have exploded higher and many funds need to rebalance their holdings by selling some of one asset class and buying another.
there is also squeeze going on in fixed income where funds need duration to offset their mortgage and callable agency portfolio due to convexity
Apologies to you Carl for off topic. Anon. mentioned trading from Laos and Thailand. Can you actually get a dependable internet connection in the mountains of Laos? I am in Mexico,day trading,but thinking of somewhere else for next winter.
Technical Market Forecast:The DJIA Will Hit between 10,027 - 11,169 by December 31, 2008!
My daily DJIA chart is as of Friday December 19, 2008. It provides a short-term Bullish forecast, and balances the majority gloomy Bearish view.
The chart with my notes and marks indicate a DJIA Ascending Triangle (short-term forecast to DJIA: 10,027.62 - Fibonacci retracement: .312); and a Reverse Head and Shoulders (Intermediate forecast to DJIA: 11,169.41 - Fibonacci retracement: .618). This work is confirmed by the other major market indices: NASDAQ, SP 500, and QQQQ.
The chart is available Free as an Image (.jpg) file upon request to Chartist at:stjamesm@hotmail.com.
18 comments:
Mr Futia, I respect your experience and work. Would it be OK to assume that day trading this market has been tough? I have followed your blog and have seen that you have a hard time making any money trading this market the past year or so.
Thank you and all the best.
Carl, whats your take on the VIX and implied vols in general?
Ill-informed comment "anonymous" he tracks his performance on the left hand side and I'd say it's damn good considering this difficult environment.
Hi Carl,
I reversed to the short side at 895.00, this is getting annoying already, I only wish this market could make up it's mind already.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl,
Long again at 888.00, and I hope this is it.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
slip5,
Yes I see the returns. That's great on a percentage basis, but you can't make a living day trading with 70% return on 15K account, can you?
Jake (Previous anonymous)
Carl you should title your next post "Down" if you want the market to rally. hehe just kidding. Thanks for your insights!
Jake you boob, that doesn't mean he trades one unit, it means he trades one unit for every $15,000 in capital he has. He shows a little modesty by not broadcasting how many units he trades. Also, that provides a guideline to followers in different capital positions. Before you post, think carefully.
Jake,
Get your hands on 1.5 million, make 70% on it, you will make a nice living.
T
I agree with you Jake but proportionally it is great and it is percentages that matter.
However if you (a) only have $15000 of capital or (b) have no other way of supporting yourself, I do not think anyone should be day trading for a living.
I personally think you need about $500,000 - $1 mio of capital to be able to trade professionally for a living. This is even more accute now that interest rates are so low but at previously 5% (in the UK, NZ,Aus for example), you could live a subsistence life even if your year was flat or down from the interest. A couple of good years and you would be doing fine.
Catherine
It also depends on your committments - I have school fees to pay and a family to support.
If you are young and single and can live in a hut on the beach in India, you can obviously live on a couple of thousand a year.
last year I traded from the beach in Thailand and from the mountains of Laos for 4 months. Internet is about 2 cents a minute in Asia so cheap to access. C
Hi Carl,
I went flat at 881.00, I don't like the way this market is behaving, and still no buy signal
Have a pleasant weekend.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Catherine,
Thanks for your feedback; very helpful. I have actually considered the hut in Goa or Kerala idea, but have to pay U.S. rent/mortgage as well, so nix that.
I was considering attempting FT trading with $100K or so, ... so it's nice to get some perspective.
Cheers!
Good points Jake and Catherine. Anyone care to share if market goes higher or lower from here until New Year.
i would just say there should be a money going into equities as treasuries have exploded higher and many funds need to rebalance their holdings by selling some of one asset class and buying another.
there is also squeeze going on in fixed income where funds need duration to offset their mortgage and callable agency portfolio due to convexity
Apologies to you Carl for off topic.
Anon. mentioned trading from Laos and Thailand. Can you actually get a dependable internet connection in the mountains of Laos? I am in Mexico,day trading,but thinking of somewhere else for next winter.
Technical Market Forecast:The DJIA Will Hit between 10,027 - 11,169 by December 31, 2008!
My daily DJIA chart is as of Friday December 19, 2008. It provides a short-term Bullish forecast, and balances the majority gloomy Bearish view.
The chart with my notes and marks indicate a DJIA Ascending Triangle (short-term forecast to DJIA: 10,027.62 - Fibonacci retracement: .312); and a Reverse Head and Shoulders (Intermediate forecast to DJIA: 11,169.41 - Fibonacci retracement: .618). This work is confirmed by the other major market indices: NASDAQ, SP 500, and QQQQ.
The chart is available Free as an Image (.jpg) file upon request to Chartist at:stjamesm@hotmail.com.
Happy Holidays!
Hi Carl,
I just went short at 886.50 in this evening's session.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
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