Friday, October 15, 2010

Guesstimates on October 15, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1174-87. From the 1185-90 zone a break of 30-40 points lasting a few trading days is likely. The ES will move above 1216 over the next few weeks.

QQQQ: Upside target at 51.00 has nearly been reached. support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above 140 but shows no signs of a top. Next target is 143.50.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target is 1380 has been reached but the market still has the bit between its teeth. Next upside target is 1480.

SLV - December Silver: Upside target at 23.80 has been exceeded but there are no signs of a top. Next upside target is 26.50.

Google: The 475 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

just a note
adding 414 days to march 6 2009
called for a minimum subnormal advance to peak on sat april 24 2010 , the market peaked on monday april 26th , adding 584 days to march 9 2009 would call for a peak on oct 14th 2010 ( yesterday )
so far the dow made a lower high on oct 13 2010 . it is still to soon to rule out lindsay's basic sub normal basic advance . this still can be considered point 7
the longest duration from point 3 to point 7 based on lindsay's work shown in the articles of george lindsay was 311 days which would imply nov 26 2010 being the point when i would have to discount this as point 7 if the market is making a higher high . the longer durations of point 7 to point 10 is between 101 - 138 days.a market peak on nov 4 2010 . would call for point 10 between feb 13 to march 22 2011 . a basic subnormal decline lasting 231-294 days counting from april 26 would call for a low between dec 13 2010 to feb 14 2011 .the benner business cycle calls for a high this year 2010 and a low in 2011 . ave moves from point 3 to point 10 of longer duration tend to be from 231 to 449
days the next point would be surrounding the day of nov 27 2010 as well as the day of april 13 2011
the largest clusters of time surround feb 13-16th 2011 and april 6-april 13 2011 as a cycle low point . the mid section counts i noted prior call for a high in the first week of nov 2010 my work related to the 20 day occilator on the dow calls for a high surrounding nov 4th 2010
all of this combined makes a fairly solid bearish case at this junture .