update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading for the past three weeks.

The trend is still upward. The ES has been trading sideways between 1162 and 1181 for four days and I think this trading range will be broken to the upside. I suspect that before that happens the market will pay a brief visit to the lower end of the range. Then it should rally to the top of the trend channel I have drawn - about 1195-1200. Then another drop to the top of the current range and possibly to the low of the current range.

I expect a move above the April top at 1216 to develop after the next 30-40 point reaction occurs. Ultimately I think the S&P will trade well above the 1300 level by April 2011.