Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Guesstimates on March 15, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1245-80. I think this correction is pretty much over and expect the final low this week. Once this correction is complete the bull market will resume.

QQQ: I expect to see new bull market highs after the current break ends.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

April Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – April Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Silver has reached the 36.00 upside target but there is still no sign of a top. Next stop is 39.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

3 comments:

Mad Calf Apps said...

Carl,
I was wondering if you could share with us your thoughts on the Japanese market action.
Thanks,
Nick

Bill said...

Carl, the technical damage done to world markets is already as serious as the one that was done during the April 2010 correction.

Also history shows that events like this tsunami devastate financial markets. Even if a low is reached this week (very doubtful) it'll take months to rebuild the bull market. A change in sentiment from optimism to fear will take root. Markets do not behave rationally. See the two links below that show what the last earthquake in Kobe, Japan did to world financial markets. And this tsunami is more serious than the earthquake in Kobe.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000010372&play=1

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42079246

Add to this the fact that investors are still thinking about buying the dips and every financial advisor sees this as a buying opportunity, and you have all the ingredients for a bear market correction of over 20%. I still think it'll be a 10% to 15% correction, nevertheless it's concerning that nobody is calling for a steep correction yet (last April people were calling for it).

Also sovereign debt, japanese debt after this catastrophe will reach over 200% of GDP and Japan may be downgraded I was reading this morning.

curt said...

one has to wonder if this is a game changer. taking the 3rd largest economy out for a period of time has to have consequences. Does this guarantee QE3? Hard to know how to play this one. Is it a correction in a bull market or the start of a more significant correction?