Tuesday, May 17, 2011

only a few more points

Here is an hourly chart of 24 hour trading in the e-minis going back to the Bin Laden high at 1373.50.

I think this correction is nearly over. The target area is the green oval. This is the confluence of the lower line of the trend channel, the midpoint (1307) of the rally from the March low at 1240 to the 1373 high (green dash line) and the level, 1310, at which the third phase of the correction will equal the length (48 points) of the first phase (blue rectangles).

Once the low is in place I think a rally will start. I expect it to carry the ES up and above the 1400 level over the next few months. This bull market is not over.

2 comments:

Adsense said...

hey carl
this still can be labeled point 28
point 10 was the april 18 low on the spx at 1294.70 . on another note this is a mini version of the decline from feb to march . we had an initial decline in feb then a triangle then a decline . this move from may has been very close to a .786 point move of that decline in both directions . also
using a 60 minute chart . there was a top on feb 18 0830 ( west coast ) another top on april 5th 0930 ( closing high ) which targets a turn thursday may 19 at 1030 ( hourly bars ) there was alow march 16 1030 another low april 18 0730 ( point 10 ) which targets a turn thursday may 19 at 1130 . the 10 day advance decline line had a low march 17 and again 22 trade days later april 18 the next date would be may 19 ( 22 trade days from april 18 ) low low low ??? also it had a high on march 30 another high 21 trade days later on april 29 the next turn is may 30 . weather the latter becomes a top to top to bottom count remains to be seen but i tend to favor that . may 25-june 1 shoould be a low of sorts .
which would imply a strong rally into initially june 15 followed by a decline into july 1 then a rally intio aug 15th . those swings are very important historically .
ill keep it simple . the 3 peaks domed house on the spx 60 minute chart is following the pattern fairly accurately so i have to respect it untill it fails .
also using the feb march decline for perspective taking the decline
and instead of using an equal point move im using a .786 pt move which targets 1295.89 which would satisfy point 28 . another thing to consider in this the extension down following the sideways movement in feb was 1.270-1.382
not all that accurate you will see
but using that same extension out of the recent sideways movement targets 1297-1293 . we could be there by thursday .
thats my thoughts
joe

today said...

hi carl, first down box into May 5 was approx 41 points

41 points down off May 10 high may give roughly SPX 1318 as the low which was hit today