Wednesday, May 04, 2011

update


Here is an hourly bar chart showing e-mini trading going back to the March 17 low at 1241.25. I think the market is in a corrective phase which will probably last about two weeks. The ES has dropped to support at its February top of 1338 (horizontal green dotted line). This makes me think that a rally of 2-3 days is now likely to develop and carry the ES up 25 points or so. But most corrections have two distinct down phases. The second down phase of this one will probably carry the market to 1327 or so where the entire drop from 1373 would equal the size of the April break which ended at 1290 (blue dash rectangles). That 1327 support level will also be close to the lower channel line of the trend channel I have drawn in about a week or so.

I have no reason to think this break is anything but a normal corrections within a bull market. Once it is complete the ES should resume its move to prices well above 1400.

7 comments:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
do you see a mini version of the 3 peaks domed house in spx on a 60 minute chart . if it is valid
then 1330 in the futures 1334 in cash spx would be point 26 then points 27 and 28 to complete would target the 1290 area .
food for thought
joe

alexnewbee said...

it is over, guys. we have seen the top. they used OBL news to sell.

Harry said...

Carl,

I agree with your analysis and prediction. We are oversold on the 60 minutes and daily charts and due for a bounce. On the other hand, further evidence that a correction is needed is that sentiment has a 38.4% spread (more bulls than bears).

Sqwii said...

Carl Futia

We should see a pullback which should last until around Mid May.

The pullback target is objective and we are forming a ending diagonal where the next support zone and objective target for SPX is 1326. After this we will see a last rally up to 1380-1400 to make a top for a longer period. The top should be made in late May 2011. Before we start June...

janet said...

Carl, your support for SLV was 39 and it broke that today, do you see it going to 56 still?? And what is its next support?? I have a buy order in on it tomorrow at 37.25. And I would ppreciate your analysis, TIA, Janet.. P.S. Thanks for the latest update.

Carl Futia said...

Janet:

I think a 37.25 buy in silver will work out well.

Moja said...

You have done a nice chart. I also think support at around 1326 will hold.. However I see very very serious resistance at 1400.

In summary, I do not think 1400 is going to be easy. It will be a good place to take profits.

Just my opinion.
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