Thursday, November 17, 2011

Guesstimates on November 17, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1203-1233. I think the market will take a peek below its November 1 low at 1208.50 and then begin a move to 1300 and higher. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.


khalid said...

janet commented on the previous post:
"Carl, I think Santa Claus has left the building. We are in a GLOBAL currency meltdown...if you can shed any light and or comfort please do."

What "GLOBAL currency meltdown" are you referring to, janet?

Jan 7, 2011 Euro was about 1.29 dollars
June 7, 2010 Euro was about 1.194 dollars

We're around 1.35 dollars to the Euro even though the Euro world seems to be ending every day.

Canadian and Australian dollars are around parity with the dollar.

What exactly is the problem?

JW said...

Currency war?

What about the Eurozone DEBT Crisis?

Where's the market going to go if Euro countries start defaulting?

I hope Carl is right with his bullish call. He has to think a Euro solution is going to happen. Probaby just delays the inevitable.

I'd love the hear Carl or others comments.

Graph1159 said...

This is one of those situations in which the practicality of Elliott Wave must be examined. From a total Elliott perspective, today's market action had very bearish implications, because the drop below the 11/1 low would probably be counted as a downward Wave 3 or a C wave, both of which usually mean much more downside to come.
However, if you set all of the Elliott stuff aside, I cannot think of a good reason why the bottom of this drop is not imminent.

I think that parts of Elliott Wave are definitely helpful if used with a sense of balance and without getting too carried away with details (like what the next tick is going to be or where we are in a grand supercycle).

beetlejuice said...

Carl, with all due respect you had it correct originally and turned bull at the wrong moment.

Hats off to you for not being flexible, HOWEVER the warning signs of a collapse are everywhere.

Europe is a disaster. The USD remains above its rising 50dma and momentun is gathering, Eurzone contagion is picking up speed and spreading nowto France the second biggest region economy and the MF collapse hasn't even begun to play out yet but I think the collapse of MF has been the trogger for spiking yields in Europe, more to come.
CDS's are at all-time highs and now the Global indices are only just begining to wake up and break down.

Said it the other week, this will go down as the biggest "bull trap" in history.

I have never seen som many analysts turn around so quickly.