Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Guesstimates on November 23, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1164-1181. It is very likely that the ES will close below 1208 Friday. This means that the weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support at 1.3500 has been broken. 1.3200 is now the downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

6 comments:

ROLLER said...

$SPX is targeting 1,110 ... about the level where the early October buying orgy started. A prudent and orderly market will want to revisit that "break-out" area.
Just my 2 cents.

Edwin said...

Carl, please have an enjoyable Thanksgiving.

I appreciate your wisdom in giving generous guidance.

janet said...

Carl, thanks for the update. Have a great Thanksgiving Day!!

dave said...

Gann 20 year cycle says a low due any minute.

Big rally into early 2012 that will take out the Nov 2011 highs.

MaverickLondon said...

Hi Carl
1)The break out was clearly false and that became apparrent once the next 2 days trading candles completely engulfed the breakout rise and then some;

2) I believe, as you now say, that we are going to take out the August and Oct lows, but probably by only a few points before we start the XMAS rally. I refer you to the post I made on 22nd Sept which said the following:

"Hi Carl
In my article entitled "Stupid Politicians" dated 15th August 2011, which is published on my blog theSarayiahpost.com, I comment that there is absolutely no solution to this crisis. I've been saying this for a while, but finally the markets have caught up with reality.

The solution, in my opinion, was to never print money to solve a problem that was created by debt in the first place and to let the banks fail. All the governments did was focus on the short term and transfer the debt at the micro level to the macro (ie sovereign) level and now those sovereigns are collapsing in what will be a domino effect of unprecedented disaster. WW3 but on an economic scale most likely leading to a depression lasting for decades.

If history repeats itself we will most likely have a strong equity market rally until mid/ end of October before complete collapse in equity, commodity and bond markets etc across the world.

The direct link to this article is:

Stupid Politicians

Isaac Sarayiah"

3) I believe after the XMAS rally bond, equity and commodity markets will collapse significantly taking out the 2008 lows. This is due to my reasoning as stated in my article on my blog.

Kind regards
Isaac

Graph1159 said...

Right now, I expect that this correction will end at 1150 on the S&P 500. From there I anticipate a strong rally through the end of the year.

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!