Guesstimates on October 31, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: The New York Stock reopens today. Today's day session range estimate is 1405-1416.  I think the ES is on the way  to 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

Guesstimates on October 30, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: The New York Stock exchange will remain closed today.  I think the ES is on the way  to 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

Guesstimates on October 29, 2012

Note: US equity market will be closed today, Monday, because of the storm. ES trading will be halted at 9:15 am New York time.

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1388-1404. I think the ES is on the way  to 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

Guesstimates on October 26, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1400-1416. The market bounced off the September 4 low at 1394.50 overnight and should now rally into the 1416-20 range. After a rally of a day or two I think the ES will resume its drop to 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

domed house update

The top chart is a daily chart of the Dow industrials going back to the beginning of 2012. The bottom chart is a schematic for George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house pattern. The bar chart is labeled with blue numbers to correspond to the schematic.

I think that the top on October 18 completed the top of the domed house and was point 25 in the schematic. The upcoming point 26 low is likely to occur at the level where the drop from the October 5 top, point 23, matches the size of the April-June 2012 drop in the Dow. From that low a strong rally to point 27 should start. I expect point 27 to develop at roughly the level of the April 2012 top in the Dow. After the point 27 top is in place the Dow should resume its drop to standard target for this formation - the vicinity of the point 10 low.

Guesstimates on October 25, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1400-1416. The 1420-25 support zone has failed. This means that the market is probably headed for 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude: New York closed below 86 yesterday. I think this means that the market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  Given the bearish trend in the general market it seems likely that support at 610 will be broken. If so the downside target will be 560.