Monday, August 12, 2013

Guesstimates on August 12, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1670-1683.  Next upside target is 1720. The ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher over the coming months.
QQQ:  Upside target is 79.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: It looks like a move up to 1.400 is underway.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
September Crude:  Crude is stalling at 108 resistance.  
December Gold:  I think a rally of $200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: The 18.00 level is support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance at 460 has been broken but I think AAPL will have a hard time moving above the 475-80 range before the next leg in its bear market starts.

1 comment:

Kelly Blaine said...

From the low on 6/24/2013 thru 8/1/2013 the DIA was up nearly 9.61 points or the near equivalent of 1000 Dow points. Of that move 3.66 points or 38% came from unfilled DOW terms, thats nearly 366 points of 1000 points from unfilled gaps. This trumps any historical period in the DIA.

A base of this distorted (unfilled gaps) magnitude is unprecedented. There is not a time in DIA history prior to 2008 where once unfilled gaps reached 22% of a move that a full retrace did not promptly follow.

From the March lows in 2009 thru today, the DIA's move is full of holes.....25% to be precise. Before AAPL imploded, it has similar unfilled gaps. The difference is that AAPL is a stock and DIA is an index, which makes the base of the entire market questionable.

While nothing is 100% in this business, I think the message is pretty clear.