Thursday, August 15, 2013

Guesstimates on August 15, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1658-1674.  This morning’s drop below 1670 may turn out to be a genuine downside breakout from an extensive 1670-1705 trading range. If so the ES is headed back to its June 24 low.
QQQ:  If the market starts accepting prices below 75 it is headed back down to 69 or lower.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: It looks like a move up to 1.400 is underway.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
September Crude:  Crude is stalling at 108 resistance.  
December Gold:  I think a rally of $200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: The 18.00 level is support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  This looks like a breakout above the high of a trading range which formed below 460 over the past few months. AAPL is now trading above its declining 200 day moving average, another bullish clue. The 460 level is now support and as long as it holds I think AAPL will continue its rally to 560 or so.


Kelly Blaine said...

Even with todays gap down, the DIA from 6/24/2013 thru today remains riddled with unfilled gaps.....32% of the move up was from unfilled gaps. More importantly, longer-term, the unfilled gaps from the 3/9/2009 lows thru today are 24% of the entire move. Historically, this kind of base is eventually entirely filled ! As Stanley Druckenmiller says, the next move down will make the 2009 disaster look harmless.

I tracked unfilled gaps on my blog

Kelly Blaine said...

Assuming todays action is a breakaway gap, the target for the DIA is 14600.