Thursday, January 02, 2014

Guesstimates on January 2, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is again 1834-1844. The ES dropped nearly 12 points overnight. I expect the market to try for Tuesday’s 1846.50 high today but if instead it starts spending time below 1834 I will conclude a drop of 25 points or so is underway. Short term fluctuations aside the ES is headed for 1900 over the next several weeks.
QQQ:  Upside target was 88 and has been reached.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: A New York close below 1.36 would mean that the Euro is headed for 1.33. Failing such a close I will stick with my view that it is headed for 1.40-1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.
February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.
March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.
Google:  Upside target is 1150 and support beneath the market stands at 1030.
Apple:  AAPL is now probably headed for 600-610.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
ill keep it simple .
it appears to me like there was
a mid section count from mid April 2013 to the Oct low 2013 .
If so here is how i see it and if
you find the time to post your thoughts i would appreciate it .
first of all the rally from
either November 16 2012 or
June 2012 to DEC 31 2013 would be consider a basic advance .
counting from nov 16 2012 makes this a sub normal advance just shy of 414 calendar days . yet that is not what im getting at at this juncture .
Point B of the middle section would be April 11 2013 and im using the daily dow chart here .
Point C is the first week day
following the april 11 high
on april 15 . im looking at ed Carlson's book as i write this yet it seems to me as i think this through that in the articles of the late George Lindsay he showed
this somewhat differently to Carlson's book . so my error may be in my interpretation .
Point B April 11 2013
Point C April 15 2013
Point D April 19 2013
Point E May 28 2013
Point F Aug 2 2013
Point G Sept 18 2013
Point H Oct 8th or 9th 2013
Point J Dec 31 2013
If This is True then
the next Low should be measured
from either Point C or Point E
and from my perspective Point C
should be considered .
Point C April 15 to Point J DEC 31
Counts as 260 Calendar days . Adding 260 cal days to Dec 31 Targets the date Sept 17 2014
Using Point E On May 28 to Dec 31
Equals 217 cal days . added to Dec 31 Targets Aug 5th 2014 . Hence the Aug 5 - Sept 17th range in time as a gauge for a low .
Why am i considering a top now ?
Look at the past rally legs from
April 22 2009 to April 23 2010
July 2 2010 to July 6 2011
Oct 4 2011 to Oct 5 2012
Dec 31 2012 To Dec 31 2013
Each of those legs Are 252 trade days ( the exception is this past rally , 252 would be Jan 3rd 2014)
so it came up short by a day .
Next i take the low on July 10 2009
Plus 282 Trade days to the low on aug 23 2010 and again on oct 4 2011 and again on nov 16 2012 to this recent top on dec 31 2013 .
Low to Low to Low to Low to High.
So there is a valid reason for my consideration to this Mid Section Count .Now here is the last peace of the puzzle im looking for .
I cant find a Compact top formation to make a top to top count yet i can count 107 calendar days from Oct 9 2013 and that targets the date Jan 24th 2014 .
and using the following trade days
i have 2 sets of low to low to high counts all on Jan 24th
The first low to low to high count
is closing low nov 15 2012 to closing low june 24 2013 to Jan 24 ( a friday ) or jan 27 ( a monday )
2014. next is June 24 2012 low to the oct 9 2013 low ( might be an interesting calendar day count ? )
to jan 24 2014 ( not to mention the 107 calendar day count from a low to a high oct 9 to jan 24 )
So the question to me is more along the lines of Did we just see the print high ? yet a low high to retest that high comes on jan 24 27th ? and then fit the details of the Mid section count as well as
start to Count a standard time for a basic decline .
Ill add one more detail . Taking all years ending in 2 3 4 5 6 ect.
I have a decennial pattern chart
calling for a peak Jan 22 2014.
Bottom line i must respect my work . This i hope made sense to you .
Thanks JOE