Monday, January 06, 2014

Guesstimates on January 6, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1823-1833. The ES dropped 26 points into Friday’s low at 1820.50 and my best guess is that this ended the drop from 1846.50. Short term fluctuations aside the ES is headed for 1900 over the next several weeks.
QQQ:  Upside target was 88 and has been reached but continuation up to 92 is likely.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The New York close below 1.36 means that the Euro is headed for 1.33.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.
February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.
March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.
Google:  Upside target is 1150 and support beneath the market stands at 1030.
Apple:  AAPL is now probably headed for 600-610.


Bill said...

Carl, this ISM number is nasty though. The new orders for services below 50, worst number since May 2009 and showing a contraction in orders for the first time since 2009 Add to this 100% of analysts saying the market is going up in January, and you have the perfect contrarian indicator of a correction that started January 1.

Rob said...

The analysts may be saying we're going up in January, but the fact is there was a massive profit-taking on Friday in the long-term indicator fund I like to watch, which is the Rydex 2x QQQ fund, RYVYX, with the volume cut in half from 444 on Thursday to 212 on Friday. That is a stunning drop, which should lead to more rallying, probably until that volume number gets back above 500, which may or may not take a while.