Guesstimates on March 28, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1834-1850. If the market starts spending time above 1850 yesterday’s drop below 1841 will start looking like a shakeout. Then the odds would favor a rally all the way back to the March 7 top at 1880.50 and beyond.

QQQ:  Downside target is 83.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: I expect this reaction to end at a higher low near 1.36.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

May Crude:  Resistance above the market is at 103. Downside target is 92 but I think that may well be only the first stopping point in a bigger decline.

April Gold:  Support at 1310 has failed. This means that gold is headed for 1050.

May Silver: Support is at 20.00 has failed. Silver is headed for 13.00.  

Google:  Daily ranges in GOOG are widening to the downside. Support is at 1075 and if this fails a drop to 900-950 is likely.

Apple:  A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 502, would be very bearish. Whether or not AAPL can make it to 600 before dropping below that moving average will depend on whether or not the trend in the general market had turned downward.