Friday, May 13, 2016

Guesstimates on May 13, 2016

June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is on its way to 2105 and above. Support today is at 2047. I expect the ES to move above its 2015 top of 2134 during the coming months.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: Instead of heading lower as I expected the Euro is rallying toward last year’s top at 1.17. If it starts spending time above that top a new bull market in the Euro will be underway. Until then I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  The dollar-yen reached its first downside target at 108 and then rallied into the 111-113 resistance zone, stopping at 111.82. The current leg down should carry to 104.
June Crude: Crude hit 47.00 yesterday and as promised I have now moved into the long term bull camp. Resistance is nearby at 48 and if this is overcome the next upside target will be 55. Support is at 40.
June Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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