Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Guesstimates on May 4, 2016

June S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s low was taken out decisively early this morning. The ES should now drop to support in the 2026-31 zone and quite possibly will continue downward to 1986 over the next couple of weeks. But once the drop from the April 20 top is complete I expect the market to rally above its 2015 top at 2134.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: Instead of heading lower as I expected the Euro is rallying toward last year’s top at 1.17. If it starts spending time above that top a new bull market in the Euro will be underway. Until then I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  The dollar-yen reached its first downside target at 108 and then rallied into the 111-113 resistance zone, stopping at 111.82. The current leg down should carry to 104.
June Crude: The market has spent a couple of days above resistance at 45 and this is tempting me to move to the bull market camp. But I will resist this temptation until crude futures hit 47.
June Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. A return to 134 is in the cards.
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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