Friday, January 11, 2019
Guesstimates on January 11, 2019
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has been repeated turned back from 2603 resistance. If support at 2563 holds another run at 2603 is likely. Should the ES drop visibly below 2560 the next lower support zone is 2515-20. I expect the ES to swing up and down between its Christmas Crash low at 2316.75 and its 200 day moving average at 2741 for the next few months. A bear market low near 2100 is likely in October 2019.
QQQ: Resistance is at 162. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has taken a peek above 115 resistance which has stopped all rally attempts for the last two months. If the market can now hold above 114.50 it will be headed up to 117.50. The longer term picture is still bearish, however.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is now resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple: AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook: FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.