Thursday, January 31, 2019
Guesstimates on January 31, 2019
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has moved above the 2677.75 trading range high. Next upside target is 2700-06. Support below the market is at 2612. Yesterday’s dovish turn in Fed policy may be enough to ward off the bear market which my Lindsay methods predict. Even so, I think it is premature to turn long term bullish until we see how the market holds up on its next big down swing. A clear upside penetration of the 200 day moving average would also be a long term bullish development. But until more evidence presents itself I will stick with my bearish scenario.
QQQ: Resistance is now at 165-67 Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro couldn’t hold 114.50 support so resistance above the market is now 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is still resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is now headed for 1365.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple: AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook: FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.